When Should States Reopen?

The debate has been looming for a few weeks now. When should states reopen? A small vocal minority has been protesting in state capitals across the country. Polls show a big majority want to wait a bit longer. The decision could literally be a life or death choice for some.

The Factors

There are two major factors at play. First and foremost, the health and safety of the public have to be taken into consideration. Secondly, the economy has to be considered. It has been a tough balancing act so far.

Scientists and health care experts have almost unanimously urged caution. Most say we are not ready to reopen the country yet. With the virus just now peeking over the last two weeks, they view the danger of reopening as too great.

Proponents of reopening tend to be the business community. It should be noted that this faction is not nearly as unified as the scientific community. Many business owners have registered concern with opening up too early.

The Debate

The pandemic has raised a philosophical debate. What level of death and devastation is high enough to shut the country down and disrupt people’s lives? As of the writing of this article, there are over 850,000 cases of the coronavirus with nearly 48,000 deaths.

To put these numbers into perspective, the H1N1 flu virus of 2009 infected 60 million people and killed over 12,000. Those numbers accumulated over the course of a year. The coronavirus has killed four times as many people in just one month.

Despite these staggering totals, there are some who say the toll is not high enough to shut down life as we know it. They point to the high number of people killed in car crashes as an example of something we tolerate. The Association for Safe International Road Travel puts that number at 38,000 per year in the US and 1.35 million worldwide.

The Virus

The coronavirus is a different animal. A single-car crash can only affect a few dozen people at most, and that would be a very rare pile-up. This virus has a high number of asymptomatic carriers who can potentially spread the disease to hundreds of people, who then become spreaders themselves.

The problem is compounded by the fact that we have a large population who are susceptible to complications from the virus. The elderly, immunocompromised, and those with lung diseases are considered high risk for the coronavirus. The US has a large senior population, and lung diseases are highly prevalent.

The Economics

The economic side of the debate is troubling as well. The social safety net in the US is one of the weakest among first-world nations. As of today, approximately 26 million Americans have had to file for unemployment. The state systems have buckled under this enormous pressure, and many citizens are running out of money.

The federal government has stepped up and added an extra $600 to the state unemployment checks. This has led to a pay increase for many low-income earners. The trouble has been getting the money into people’s hands.

The Verdict

When should states reopen? With experts saying another wave of coronavirus is expected in the fall, it would be foolish to rush things now. The economic damage has already been done. Reopening early could be catastrophically both from a health care perspective and an economic perspective.

The best bet at this point would be to bolster aid efforts to help those struggling economically. If the states can’t handle the surge in unemployment filings, the federal government needs to step in to assist. There are numerous “essential” jobs that need filling for those that would rather work than take a “handout”.

Ultimately, we can make up for lost economic output. We can not replace a lost life. The risk is far too great to reopen at this point. We are either close too or still at the peak of the outbreak. Until the spread has slowed to a more safe level, states should not reopen.