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Governor Kay Ivey announced her plan to reopen Alabama yesterday. The plan calls for opening retail shops at 50% capacity, as well as the beaches. Restaurant dining rooms, churches, and beauty parlors remain closed. Today, I will be assessing Alabama’s reopen plan.
Alabama’s Reopening Plan
The shelter in place order will expire on Friday, replaced by a safer at home recommendation. You are no longer required to stay at home, but it is still recommended that you limit your outings to essential trips. Gatherings of more than 10 people are still prohibited.
Retail shops will be able to open at 50% capacity. This is higher than some states, which have limited capacity to 25%. However, Governor Ivey did keep restaurants closed for dine-in customers, something neighboring Georgia failed to do. Other close contact businesses like beauty parlors and nail salons remain closed as well.
School has already been canceled for the remainder of the year in a previous order. That was not changed yesterday.
Any assessment has to look at the situation from two angles: economics and public health. Health officials are fairly united in their opposition to states opening up at this time. Business interests are a more mixed bag, with many wanting to open, but others fearing a rush back to work. The government has had the difficult task of balancing the two concerns.
Public Health
State Health Director Dr. Scott Harris stated yesterday that Alabama has seen a plateau in positive cases. However, the state has not seen a 14 day decline the CDC recommended for a more aggressive reopening. On a positive note, the state does have adequate hospital space and a decrease in those reporting symptoms. That covers 2 of the 3 criteria the CDC put forth for a phase one reopening.
Testing remains a problem across the country. We remain woefully ill-equipped on the testing and tracing front. The whole point of the shutdown was to lower the burden on our hospitals and prepare a testing regiment to contain the virus going forward. Unfortunately, we are failing on that front.
Economics
Economically, we have to reopen at some point. We can’t keep the state closed forever. Another two weeks of shelter in place probably would have been optimal, as we might have achieved the 14 day decline in cases the CDC recommended.
The governor faced tremendous pressure to reopen, partially due to the slow rollout of unemployment benefits. This is something the Labor Department needs to address going forward. We have to be able to respond more quickly to an economic crisis.
Opening retail at 50% capacity seems like a reasonable compromise, as long as workers, especially high risk workers, are not forced back to work in unhealthy environments. Businesses must be accountable for enforcing social distancing and providing PPE for their employees. There are certain responsibilities that come with serving the public.
Keeping the dining rooms of restaurants closed was a wise decision. A public dining room might be one of the most unsafe places one could be during this pandemic. You can’t eat with a face mask on. Both customers and employees would be in danger of spreading the virus to a high number of people.
Biggest Mistake?
Perhaps the biggest mistake in the reopen plan was allowing the beaches to reopen. The beaches are going to attract large numbers of people, something we are trying to avoid right now. No other form of entertainment was opened by the order.
The order calls for social distancing and no gatherings larger than 10 people, but this will be next to impossible to maintain on the beaches. Furthermore, it will be a waste of police resources to try and do so. We are also putting our law enforcement in danger by forcing them to constantly break up gatherings.
The decision on opening the beaches is one where the governor clearly sided more with business interests than public health. Beach businesses already missed out on some of the spring break season, and the governor clearly did not want them to miss out on Memorial Day weekend and the start of the summer beach season.
Assessment
Assessing Alabama’s reopen plan requires seeing the fears of both sides of the equation. A majority of Americans do not think the country is ready to be reopened. They fear a resurgence of the virus. However, a large number is struggling due to loss of jobs or working hours. They are afraid they might not be able to put food on the table.
Given these circumstances, I think Governor Ivey’s plan was reasonable. The only facet I strongly disagree with was opening the beaches at this point. That is something that could have waited. Going forward, the state needs to improve its testing capacity and unemployment system. With improvements in these areas, the state will be better able to handle a resurgence either now or in the fall.