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Former President Donald Trump has won the Iowa Caucuses, kicking off the Republican Primary season in a dominant fashion. While the outcome was not a surprise, the margin was something of an eye-raiser.
New Hampshire is the next stop in the Republican nominating process. Nikki Haley is expected to give Mr. Trump a tougher contest in the Granite State.
Record Margin For The Iowa Caucuses
Trump’s 30,000 vote win is a record for a contested Iowa Caucus. Pundits thought Nikki Haley might have closed the gap somewhat in recent weeks, but she ended up finishing third closely behind Florida Governor Ron Desantis.
Vivek Ramaswamy, the businessman attempting to follow Trump’s 2016 playbook, suspended his campaign after finishing a distant fourth.
Mr. Trump finished with just over 50% of the vote. It was a strong showing in a state where Trump struggled in 2016. The former president lost the Iowa Caucuses to Ted Cruz that year.
Trump’s hold over the evangelical vote and cultural conservatives proved durable. Desantis had hoped to pull some of those supporters to his side with a traditional Iowa campaign. Despite visiting all 99 Iowa counties and participating in multiple debates, he was unable to sway enough Republicans to his side.
Nikki Haley did well with moderates, but her path to victory remains small. A strong showing, possibly even a win, is needed in New Hampshire to have any hope going forward.
Questions Remain
Despite the resounding win, the path forward remains shaky for Republicans. Mr. Trump faces over 90 indictments in courts across the country. Though his legal trouble has yet to hurt him with Republican voters, polls show a conviction could damage him with independents.
With both Desantis and Haley seemingly remaining in the race, a viable contender has yet to emerge. The pathway for Desantis seems particularly narrow if Trump remains eligible to run. There is simply too much crossover between supporters between the two candidates.
Haley has a stronger path to victory than Desantis, but equally unlikely. The Republican Party has gotten more conservative over the past decade. Moderates are finding their electoral path becoming narrower and narrower. This is particularly true in primaries, where the vote tends to be more conservative.
The fallout over the coming days will certainly be interesting.
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